Industry new
Qingdao textile machinery industry economic trends and forecasts
In the international market, the recent fluctuations in employment in the US have affected market sentiment. The continued appreciation of the yen has curbed export growth, which may have a negative impact on the further recovery of consumption. However, there are also relatively positive factors in the global economic and market recovery: although the US and Japanese economies lack the momentum of a strong recovery, the economic fundamentals have not shown signs of deterioration. If the European debt crisis does not spread further, at least within this year, as employment improvement, tax cuts and other policies continue to play a role and the US real estate market stabilizes, it is expected that the US and Japanese economies and markets will basically maintain and grow steadily. The European Central Bank plans to launch a new round of long-term refinancing operations that have a positive impact on controlling global financial market risks and stabilizing the European economy. In the second half of 2012, under the premise that the European debt problem has not been further deepened, with the launch of the long-term refinancing operation of the European Central Bank, under the support of the United States and Japan, it is expected that the global economic environment will gradually stabilize and reduce the weakening demand in the international market. risk.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the afternoon of August 9, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.2% year-on-year in July, which was lower than the market expectation of 9.8% and June's 9.5%. The growth rate was the lowest since May 2009. recording. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 13.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was lower than the median value of Reuters Research, which was 13.7%, which was the lowest since February 2006. China’s inflation rate fell to 1.8% in July, the lowest level in 30 months. As a leading indicator of China's economic growth, the power generation in July increased by only 2.1% year-on-year. Although the growth rate was higher than that in June, it was still at a relatively low level. Historically, due to weather disasters, high temperatures and other factors concentrated in July, the monthly data representation is not very strong, but combined with PPI, power generation, PMI and other indicators, the early stage of steady growth measures is not enough to stabilize the economy. .
Some analysts pointed out that China's economic growth rate is still in a downward channel, but the probability of bottoming out in the third quarter is relatively large.
The United Nations predicts that China’s economy will grow by 8.3% in 2012, which will be lower than the 9.2% growth rate in 2011. In the third quarter, GDP is expected to grow by about 8.2%, down 0.9 points year-on-year, and will rise 0.6 points from the second quarter. The CPI and PPI are expected to be around 2.0% and -0.6% in the third quarter, respectively, and prices have fallen, and inflationary pressures have eased, creating a large space for the fine-tuning of monetary policy expectations.
From the perspective of market demand, the textile industry's exports in the second half of the year should be basically the same as or slightly lower than the current level. However, considering the influencing factors such as exchange rate and raw materials, the decline in export growth rate may further increase.
In the second half of 2012, the domestic macroeconomic growth rate will gradually pick up. As the current domestic investment and consumption growth rate has not recovered significantly, and the price has been steadily falling, it is expected that the domestic monetary environment will remain relatively accommodative in the second half of the year. The deposit reserve ratio and interest rate may still be lowered, which will lead to further market interest rates. Downstream, corporate financial cost pressure is expected to gradually ease. The monetary policy has been relaxed, which is conducive to supporting domestic production, investment and consumption activities, and promoting the acceleration of endogenous growth in the economy. After the industrial enterprises have adjusted production capacity such as production restrictions, the inventory compression process will be gradually completed and production will gradually recover. However, the current situation of financing difficulties for small and medium-sized textile enterprises will not change significantly. In the second half of the year, the domestic demand market will be boosted from the first half of the year, but the growth rate will still be lower than the previous year. A good macroeconomic outlook will help boost consumer confidence while improving the income of urban and rural residents and providing incentives for consumption growth. Low prices stabilized, especially the stabilization of food consumption prices, which helped stabilize the consumption structure. As the price of textile raw materials is still high, it is expected that the market price of clothing products will have limited downside, and the impact of price on consumption will continue.
In the second half of the year, the expectation of the US dollar continuing to be strong is strong. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar is still dominated by two-way fluctuations, and the average exchange rate should remain basically stable. The yen still has strong expectations for appreciation, which is favorable for exports to Japan, but the continued depreciation of the euro and emerging economies' currencies will have a restrictive effect on exports.
Although the overall market demand is still not strong, but due to the impact of cotton temporary storage policy, it is expected that there is no obvious downside for domestic cotton prices, and prices will increase after September. At present, the international market generally expects the global cotton production in the new cotton year to be normal, and as the global economic recovery is still slow, the cotton price increase still lacks market momentum. If the problem of cotton price difference between domestic and foreign countries cannot be effectively solved, the pressure on China's cotton textile industry chain will become more prominent. In the second half of the year, as the global economy and market demand are unlikely to improve significantly, it is expected that the price of crude oil will continue to rise, and it is difficult to support the further increase in the price of chemical fiber products. However, with the gradual recovery of the domestic demand market and the expected rise in domestic cotton prices, the price of chemical fiber may show a trend of shock adjustment and small increase. In the second half of the year, due to the full supply of thermal coal, fuel power prices are expected to remain low. With the adjustment of thermal coal production, prices in the fourth quarter may gradually pick up.
The uncertainty of the international market of the textile industry is still high. It is optimistic that the demand situation may stabilize or decline slightly at the current level, and the overall situation is still in a weak state, which is difficult to force the growth of the industry. Affected by the sluggish external demand and cotton price problems, it is expected that the growth rate of production and exports in the second half of the year will still decline, and the benefits will continue to grow negatively. However, as the growth rate of domestic demand rebounds and the base of the previous year declines, the decline in the growth rate of production and sales will gradually slow down. In the major industries, it is expected that the production and sales of the terminal links will be basically stable, and the chemical fiber industry will be slightly improved. The pressure on the cotton textile industry is still outstanding.
